The U.S. fertilizer and nutrient market continues to challenge row crop producers with high input costs, following significant volatility in 2021 and 2022. Although prices have declined from the record highs of 2022, they remain elevated compared to previous years.
A key concern for farmers is the fertilizer price-to-crop ratio, also known as the affordability index. With nitrogen currently priced at about $0.60 per pound and corn selling for $4.50 per bushel, the index stands at 0.15—a level not seen since peak prices in 2022. This means it now takes more bushels than usual to cover fertilizer expenses, particularly for phosphate and potash.
Fertilizer price fluctuations are mainly driven by production costs—especially natural gas—and global trade policies. Natural gas serves as the main feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, and anticipated increases in U.S. and European natural gas prices due to higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity could raise production expenses further.
Trade policy changes have also played a major role in shaping market conditions. Countervailing duties (CVDs) were imposed on phosphate imports from Morocco and Russia, increasing U.S. phosphate prices by approximately 34% according to research published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
In 2025, reciprocal tariffs on key fertilizer products were initially set at 25%, but later reduced to 10%. Most fertilizer products became exempt from tariffs as of November that year, which has brought relief to importers and raised expectations of lower prices for spring 2026.
While tariff removals are expected to help reduce input costs ahead of the next growing season, retailers and manufacturers still need to sell through inventory purchased during earlier price spikes before sharp declines reach farmers directly. Producers are encouraged to watch market movements closely and make strategic purchasing decisions.
Agronomists recommend that growers maximize their return on investment by conducting soil tests, targeting specific nutrient deficiencies—including micronutrients like zinc and iron—and considering variable rate applications where appropriate.
Farmer’s Business Network (FBN) offers access to an efficient supply chain intended to reduce traditional markups on premium nutrients while providing transparent pricing options aimed at helping growers improve yield and profitability.
Growers should continue monitoring evolving market conditions as they plan for future crop seasons.