A study published by the University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics reports that the value of California’s top agricultural exports to China dropped by 64% from 2024 to 2025, following new U.S. tariffs and Chinese retaliatory measures. The findings were released on Mar. 18 and highlight significant impacts on farming communities across the state.
The report underscores how changes in trade policy can quickly disrupt established export markets, which are vital for many sectors of California agriculture. According to the authors, the loss of market access has led to immediate financial losses for growers and related industries, with long-term consequences expected as competitors fill the gap left by U.S. products.
After China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, it became a major destination for California crops such as almonds, pistachios, dairy, and cotton. However, this growth was interrupted first by the U.S.-China trade war in 2018-19 and again in 2025 when new tariffs were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. In response, China placed its own tariffs on American goods including many produced in California.
The study found that annual pistachio exports to China fell by about $478 million and almond exports declined by roughly $228 million between 2024 and 2025. Export volumes also dropped sharply—almond shipments decreased about 77%, while pistachio shipments fell around 84%. These declines illustrate how quickly global demand can shift toward other suppliers when trade barriers are introduced.
Counties with large agricultural sectors experienced some of the largest estimated annual export losses: Fresno County lost approximately $246 million and Kern County about $238 million. These effects extend beyond farms to processors, trucking companies, warehouses, and port facilities that support agricultural exports.
“Long-term trade relationships are fragile,” said Sandro Steinbach, professor of agribusiness and applied economics at North Dakota State University. “Trade policy shifts can easily destroy more than they protect.”
Colin Carter, professor emeritus at UC Davis’ Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, said: “Rebuilding lost trust and market share will take years, if not decades, and would likely require hundreds of millions of dollars in market development efforts.”
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The broader implications suggest that even temporary disruptions can have lasting effects on farmers’ ability to compete internationally. As global buyers turn elsewhere during periods of restricted access, regaining those markets may prove difficult even if policies change.